Tariff & Input Cost Shock Calculator
See how tariffs and input cost increases hit your margin, and the price increase needed to hold it.
Example scenario—not a forecast or verified benchmark. Enable JavaScript to edit inputs, view charts, save locally and export your analysis.
Example inputs
- Annual revenue
- 6,000,000
- Annual cost of goods sold (before the increase)
- 3,900,000
- Inputs facing a cost increase
- [{"name":"Imported components (China)","annualSpend":900000,"increasePct":25,"passThroughPct":20},{"name":"Steel / aluminum","annualSpend":450000,"increasePct":15,"passThroughPct":0},{"name":"Packaging","annualSpend":180000,"increasePct":8,"passThroughPct":0},{"name":"Inbound freight","annualSpend":220000,"increasePct":12,"passThroughPct":0}]
- Expected volume loss per 1% price increase
- 0.8
Example results
Input cost increases add $288K a year and cut gross margin by 4.8 points; you need a 7.4% price increase to hold margin % (4.8% to hold gross profit dollars).
- Added annual cost
- $288,300
- Price increase to hold margin %
- 7.4%
- Price increase to hold gross profit $
- 4.8%
- Gross margin today
- 35%
- Gross margin after shock (no price change)
- 30.2%
- Gross profit lost if you do nothing
- $288,300
- Profit gap after repricing (volume loss)
- $80,724
- Spend exposed to increases
- 44.9%
What stands out
Gross margin falls from 35% to 30.2%
$288K of added cost wipes out 14% of current gross profit if you do nothing.
Imported components (China) drives 62% of the hit
A 25% increase on $900K of spend (after the supplier absorbs 20%) adds $180K.
Holding margin % needs 7.4%; holding profit $ needs 4.8%
Holding the dollar profit is the minimum; holding your 35% margin requires 2.59% more because the margin applies to the higher cost base too.
Volume loss could leave a $81K gap even after repricing
At 0.8 elasticity, a 4.8% price rise may cost about 3.8% of volume. Pair pricing with cost and mix actions.
Next actions
- Raise prices at least 4.8% on affected products now, prioritizing those with the most imported components (china) content rather than an across-the-board increase.
- Open a cost-sharing conversation with the Imported components (China) supplier and price out alternative sources or origins (USMCA, domestic) to cut the $180K hit.
- Add a surcharge or index clause to new quotes and contracts so future input swings pass through automatically.
- Check eligibility for tariff exclusions, duty drawback, or a foreign-trade zone with a licensed customs broker.
Model assumptions & limitations
- Cost increases are applied to the annual spend you entered; volumes and product mix are held constant before repricing.
- Hold margin %: new price = new COGS ÷ (1 − today's gross margin). Hold gross profit $: price rises by exactly the added cost.
- Volume response uses a simple linear elasticity of 0.8 (your input) and assumes COGS scales with volume.
- Tariff rates change frequently; confirm current rates and classifications with a customs broker.