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How much stock does systematic overforecasting create?
Translate a consistent forecast overstatement into surplus purchasing over the planning horizon.
Example scenario
Editable demonstration inputs, not verified industry benchmarks. Enable JavaScript to calculate your own scenario.
- Actual unit demand / month
- 10,000
- Forecast above actual demand
- 15 %
- Months orders are locked
- 3 months
- Cash cost / excess unit
- $20
- Excess inventory value eventually recovered
- 70 %
Excess purchasing cash exposure
Example result only, not a forecast or promise.
- Excess ordered units
- 4,500
- Inventory value at risk after recovery
- $27,000
- Recoverable inventory value
- $63,000
What to do with this result
Measure signed bias by SKU and planner; percentage error alone cannot distinguish chronic overstock from underforecasting.
Know what is inside the model.
Planning model, not personalized financial advice. Your inputs remain in your browser.
Calculation method
Excess ordered units = actual monthly demand × positive forecast bias × locked months. Value at risk = excess units × unit cost × (1 − recovery).
Assumptions and limitations
- Example inputs are editable scenarios, not Aryo results or independently verified industry benchmarks.
- Demand, lead times and service levels are scenario inputs. Validate variability, physical constraints and supplier terms before ordering.