All business decision tools
Is this bid worth the pursuit cost?
Use win probability, delivery contribution and bid cost to set a pursuit hurdle.
Example scenario
Editable demonstration inputs, not verified industry benchmarks. Enable JavaScript to calculate your own scenario.
- Contract revenue
- $1,000,000
- Contribution margin if won
- 25 %
- Win probability
- 20 %
- Remaining bid cost
- $60,000
- Expected delivery-risk cost if won
- $30,000
Expected pursuit contribution
Example result only, not a forecast or promise.
- Contribution if won after risk allowance
- $220,000
- Minimum win probability
- 27.3%
- Remaining bid investment
- $60,000
What to do with this result
Score strategic fit and capacity separately; use remaining avoidable bid cost, not sunk costs, in the decision.
Know what is inside the model.
Planning model, not personalized financial advice. Your inputs remain in your browser.
Calculation method
Expected pursuit value = win probability × (contract contribution − conditional risk cost) − remaining bid cost.
Assumptions and limitations
- Example inputs are editable scenarios, not Aryo results or independently verified industry benchmarks.
- Use matched cohorts and fully loaded costs. Attribution is an assumption, not evidence of incremental lift.